How Big Things Get Done

The Surprising Factors Behind Every Successful Project, from Home Renovations to Space Exploration: A Review of How Big Things Get Done by Prof. Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner

I first heard about “How Big Things Get Done” on the Redefining Energy podcast, where it was highlighted as essential reading for anyone tackling complex projects, especially in the energy sector. The book delves deep into the surprising factors that determine whether a project succeeds or fails, offering insights that apply far beyond just energy infrastructure.

Having worked in the energy industry throughout my career, I have witnessed firsthand the profound impact that project management can have on the success or failure of projects worldwide. Energy projects vary widely in scope, from a $5,000 home solar installation to a $30 billion nuclear power plant or hydroelectric dam. The economic implications of these projects can be immense, often affecting entire countries. Ultimately, these costs are borne by the public through higher taxes, government money printing, or increased electricity bills, making it a matter of concern for everyone.

This issue resonates deeply with me, especially considering the next two decades, where trillions of dollars will be invested in new energy and transportation infrastructure projects to combat climate change and move away from fossil fuels. Enhancing project execution is crucial to achieving the worlds decarbonization goals.

We simply cannot afford delays or cost overruns if we want our children and grandchildren to grow up in a safe and clean world. Achieving our goals for a sustainable future requires precision and efficiency in every project, especially those focused on combating climate change.

“Scale and speed”; those are the key words. To win the fight against climate change, we must build at a scale and speed that put to shame the long, sorry record of the giant projects of the past. We can no longer afford bloated budgets and deadlines that keep sliding into the future. And we absolutely cannot have projects that never deliver what they promise.”

How Big Things Get Done

The book breaks down this problem into the following key topics which I will cover in more detail below:

• Understand your odds.
• Plan slow, act fast. Getting to the action quickly feels right. But it’s wrong. 
• Think right to left. Start with your goal, then identify the steps to get there.
• Find your Lego. Big is best built from small.
• Be a team maker. You won’t succeed without an “us.”
• Master the unknown unknowns. Most think they can’t, so they fail.

🎲🎲 Understand your odds

To better understand this topic we must first understand the scale of the issue.

No less than 92% of megaprojects come in over budget or over schedule, or both.

The cost of California’s high-speed rail project soared from $33 billion to $100 billion—and won’t even go where promised.

How Big Things Get Done

The graphic below illustrates the monumental scale of cost overruns, impacting projects across various industries and geographies. Fortunately, there is a wealth of data from past projects that provides valuable lessons, forming the foundation for the book’s recommendations.

You might wonder how most projects may deviate so significantly from their initial plans. A significant reason is inherent bias and incentives that lead people and leaders to forecast the most optimistic outcomes.

For example, if the proposed costs of the Suez Canal or the Scottish Parliament had been known from the start, these projects might never have been approved. The proposers often present the most optimistic vision, driven by incentives. Unfortunately, the individuals who forecast these outcomes, such as salespeople or politicians, frequently move on to other roles, leaving project managers to face the consequences and realities of delivery.

As projects get bigger and decisions more consequential, the influence of money and power grows. Powerful individuals and organizations make the decisions, the number of stakeholders increases, they lobby for their specific interests, and the name of the game is politics. And the balance shifts from psychology to strategic misrepresentation.

How Big Things Get Done

One effective tool to prevent this is to ensure that every proposed budget is compared to other similar projects. And before you argue that there are unique activities in this world, remember that they are all derivatives, allowing for meaningful comparisons.

If you’re planning to host the Olympic Games,
your expected cost overrun will be 157 percent, with a 76 percent risk of ending up in the tail with an expected overrun of 200 percent and substantial further risk of overrun above this.

How Big Things Get Done

🤔Plan slow, act fast

Human nature and the pressures faced by companies, governments, and people to act are fundamental stumbling blocks for projects. Taking time to plan before leaping to action is very hard, but I have seen the impact of delays and problems that occur during a project cost 10x to 100x more than the cost of taking time to plan.

Abraham Lincoln is reputed to have said that if he had five minutes to chop down a tree, he’d spend the first three sharpening the ax. That’s exactly the right approach for big projects: Put enormous care and effort into planning to ensure that delivery is smooth and swift. Think slow, act fast: That’s the secret of success.

How Big Things Get Done

Next time you need to justify more time or additional headcount to prepare for a project, calculate the cost impact of a delay once the project is in execution versus a delay before it starts.

The difference can be substantial.

The successful megaprojects highlighted in this book, such as the Empire State Building and the Guggenheim Museum Bilbao, stand out because of the extraordinary level of effort and detail put into their planning. Every minute aspect—tools, workforce, construction methods, architecture—was meticulously thought through, discussed, and scrutinized before the project even began. This thorough preparation set them apart from most other projects.

That is, sadly, typical. On project after project, rushed, superficial planning is followed by a quick start that makes everybody happy because shovels are in the ground. But inevitably, the project crashes into problems that were overlooked or not seriously analyzed and dealt with in planning. People run around trying to fix things. More stuff breaks. There is more running around. I call this the “break-fix cycle.” A project that enters it is like a mammoth stuck in a tar pit.

How Big Things Get Done

⬅️Think right to left.

This chapter was particularly fascinating. It offered an example of a couple refurbishing a kitchen in a New York apartment. They started the project without fully agreeing on the final outcome, and as the renovation progressed, the scope expanded. Changing plans during execution is highly inefficient, causes delays, hinders adequate planning, and, predictably, drives cost overruns.

To avoid such issues, it is crucial to have a deep understanding of the desired outcome. Why are you building the kitchen? Is it for entertaining guests, starting a cake-baking business, or simply creating a cosy spot to read the newspaper each morning? Most people don’t think this through in detail, leading to unsatisfactory results. Ensure the project is designed to deliver exactly what is needed—no more, no less.

Changing goals mid-project is a common and disastrous mistake.

🧱Find your Lego

Completing any task for the first time is always slow as you learn the nuances. For instance, the first time I re-strung a guitar, it took me 20 minutes; now, after doing it 20 times, I can do it in just 5 minutes—a fourfold improvement. Imagine applying this rate of progress to a multi-billion-dollar project: by breaking the execution into smaller, repeatable tasks, teams can learn, improve, and accelerate as the project advances.

Modularity is a clunky word for the elegant idea of big things made from small things. A block of Lego is a small thing, but by assembling more than nine thousand of them, you can build one of the biggest sets Lego makes, a scale model of the Colosseum in Rome. That’s modularity.

How Big Things Get Done

This is most easily shown in the energy industry. The projects with the biggest cost overruns are nuclear power plants. Each one is a bespoke, one-of-a-kind endeavour, and hence, the cost of this technology has increased over time. Compare this to renewable energy, where we see steady year-on-year cost declines and some of the least cost overruns in any project type.

Solar power is the king of modularity. It is also the lowest-risk project type of any I’ve tested in terms of cost and schedule. That’s no coincidence. Wind power? Also extremely modular. Modern windmills consist of four basic factory-built elements assembled on-site: a base, a tower, the “head” (nacelle) that houses the generator, and the blades that spin. Snap them together, and you have one windmill. Repeat this process again and again, and you have a wind farm. 

How Big Things Get Done

Modularity does not mean that the end result cannot be one-of-a-kind. The example here is the Empire State Building. This is clearly a unique iconic building, but it was designed for modular construction. The teams constructing this building were able to get faster and faster at completing each floor due to this design, and had it completed in a record 12 months and with 1930’s technology.

What are the Lego bricks for your project?

🤝Be a team maker

GET YOUR TEAM RIGHT This is the only heuristic cited by every project leader I’ve ever met

How Big Things Get Done

It might seem obvious, but getting the right team in place is an area where things frequently go wrong. When you hire the right team, you immediately tap into their collective knowledge, expertise, and lessons learned. Many of the challenges discussed in this book can be mitigated by using experienced professionals who inherently understand these matters.

In my career, I’ve seen two common mistakes:

• Not hiring the best talent due to budget constraints or HR-imposed salary limits is a reckless approach when embarking on a multi-million or multi-billion-dollar project. The cost of hiring the most qualified individuals is minimal compared to the potential costs of a project gone wrong. On multiple occasions, I have successfully persuaded HR to increase the budget for a position by highlighting the scale of the project and the significant financial risks of inexperienced staffing.
• Selecting the team leader for reasons unrelated to their skills or track record. This includes political appointments or non-project-related targets.

One example that comes to mind is a large, intergovernmental-funded project (which shall remain nameless) where key hiring criteria included nationality or proficiency in at least two to three languages. Such requirements often prevent the best people from filling critical roles and, without a doubt, contribute to significant project failures.

HIRE A MASTERBUILDER I sometimes say that this is my only heuristic because the masterbuilder—named after the skilled masons who built Europe’s medieval cathedrals—possesses all the phronesis needed to make your project happen. You want someone with deep domain experience and a proven track record of success in whatever you’re doing,

But who should pick the team? Ideally, that’s the job of a masterbuilder. In fact, it’s the masterbuilder’s main job. This is why the role of masterbuilder is not as solitary as it sounds; projects are delivered by teams. So to amend my advice above: When possible, hire a masterbuilder. And the masterbuilder’s team.

How Big Things Get Done

🔮Master the unknown unknowns

One fact of life is that “shit happens.” You don’t know when, where, or how bad it will be, but unexpected issues arise everywhere, and project execution is no exception. Just because these challenges are unknown and unpredictable doesn’t mean we should ignore them, cross our fingers 🤞, and hope for the best. In fact, the opposite is true—you must proactively structure your projects, teams, and processes to handle these unknowns as they emerge.

Starting with a schedule and budget that includes a buffer for the unexpected is essential, but you can’t prepare for every possible unknown; otherwise, you’d need an infinitely long schedule and an endlessly large budget, which is clearly not feasible. It’s like in life: you shouldn’t spend everything you earn—you need to keep a reasonable buffer, whether that’s a week or six months, depending on your situation. This buffer buys you time to address issues when they arise. Without it, panic sets in, often making the situation worse.

If something goes wrong, the project’s fate depends on the strength of those relationships. And when something goes wrong, it’s too late to start developing and cultivating them. Build your bridges before you need them.

How Big Things Get Done

Once again, having the right team who can stay calm and pragmatic when dealing with problems is crucial.

KNOW THAT YOUR BIGGEST RISK IS YOU It’s tempting to think that projects fail because the world throws surprises at us: price and scope changes, accidents, weather, new management—the list goes on. But this is shallow thinking.

How Big Things Get Done

Conclusion

This is a great book for a much wider audience than might initially seem obvious from the topic. It’s not just for professional project managers—far from it. It’s for anyone trying to get something done, whether it’s a home renovation or a government minister planning a new transport network for an entire country.

I found the book very accessible, filled with interesting examples from around the world that ground the concepts in reality, and packed with practical advice I can apply to both my home and work life.

If you’re looking to sharpen your project management skills or simply understand what makes complex projects succeed or fail, this book is a must-read. It’s packed with real-world examples and practical advice that anyone can apply, whether you’re managing a home renovation or a large-scale infrastructure project.

And if you enjoy audiobooks, this one is great for those long car journeys or commutes—you’ll come away with new perspectives and actionable ideas to bring to your own projects.